I just watched one of Penn & Teller's DVDs of "Bullshit," where the focus was on the environmental movement.

Here's my question: in the battle of the talking heads, how are we supposed to evaluate scientific claims if we're not experts in that particular science? Everyone has his or her own axe to grind, and dismissing one set of statistics simply because it comes from a government source seems a bit paranoid. Dismissing another set simply because it comes from a self-proclaimed "tree-hugger" seems arrogant.

I've read well-written reports that say global climate change IS occuring. I've read equally well-written reports that deny it's happening, and other reports that say it's happening but it's no big deal.

No one can seem to agree on the annual rate of species extinction, if it's occurring more rapidly now, or even if it matters to humans at all.

While I appreciate Penn & Teller's entertaining approach to the problem, I'm not convinced they addressed the real issue -- when faced with conflicting expert opinions, how do you go about finding the truth? Or is that there IS no truth -- just data to be interpreted?

Does that make any sense?
posted by:
Aziyade
Indiana
  • While I like Penn & Teller's show, they omit a lot facts to make their point. They usually underrepresent one side of argument and pass that off as trying to be balanced.

    It's difficult to take a hard stance on something that is on the cutting edge of science. I try to read as many articles as I can and glean the outstanding questions and apparent contradictions that remain. Usually if one keeps reading about the subject, those questions will be answered.

    For example, today there was an article about reviews of research that appeared to contradict global warming. Two reviews found some erroneous methods were used to calculate the data:
    www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi

    I'm sure some honest scientists were using findings like these to say that some data shows global warming isn't a fact just yet. Sadly, science doesn't take a linear path to the truth. Especially in fields as complex as global climate prediction.
    • While I like Penn & Teller's show, they omit a lot facts to make their point. They usually underrepresent one side of argument and pass that off as trying to be balanced.

      >> Since when do they try to appear balanced! They are calling bullshit on something. Aside from that its a 30 minute show. Anyone who watches a 30 minute show and thinks they have all the info on the subject is not being very clever. The show is perfect how it is. It gets the ball rolling if you want to learn more on a subject. There is no need to critisize their choosing a side or not presenting the "whole" side of the story in such a short entertainment medium. We need more shows like theirs!
      • What sells in the media is the "either-or" situation. Example: Either global warming is happening or it is not. As a reporter you are essentially required to create a 50/50 controversy -- you have to make it seem as if the scientific community is split down the middle. Even if there are literally only 6 scientists who continue to publish papers denying global warming, as a reporter you are strongly "encouraged" to call them up and get the "other side of the issue."

        This makes for an interesting pop science story, but it does the public no good.

        Penn & Teller are doing the same thing, albeit with the bias against one side or the other. I don't mean to pick on them, because I do enjoy the show, but they advertise themselves as skeptics, identifying the bullshit masquerading as good science. How exactly was this accomplished in this episode? What exactly did they unmask as bullshit?

        We see a government official -- oh, well obviously he's full of bullshit. He's from the government.
        We see a "tree-hugger" -- obviously her information is full of bullshit because she's a flake.
        We see a "former director of Greenpeace" -- someone with an obvious axe to grind AGAINST the movement, and yet he's NOT full of bullshit?

        Americans seem to genuinely WANT to do the right thing. We just hear so much conflicting information about what the right thing is that it confuses us into inaction. Apathy is created out of confusion -- we don't act, because we don't know HOW to act. We've been convinced by the media that every issue is "either-or" and that scientists just don't know yet which side is right.

        It's important for us to START understanding this either/or dichotomy is myth BECAUSE we're expected as a voting public to make decisions around science. Do we want to encourage our representatives to vote for or against the clean-air act, the endangered species act, etc. The Superconducting SuperCollider project got killed because the American public didn't understand the science -- yet we'd already spent a BILLION dollars on the project. A billion tax dollars now wasted. A billion tax dollars that could have been spent on veterans' health care or natural disaster cleanup.
  • in the battle of the talking heads, how are we supposed to evaluate scientific claims if we're not experts in that particular science?

    >> In some ways I have given up. My life is too short to figure some of this stuff out. Better to wait for a consensus from the community and just not take either side at present.
    • Unsu...
       
      While science does not yet have all the answers about global warming does not mean we should not err on the side of caution. Industry is using the lack of scientific consensus to continue polluting. Even if global warming is disproved we still need more laws and more regulations on industry. Our right to breathe clean air trumps their quest for profits in fact it trumps private property.
  • They deny that climate change has happened? That's absolutely silly. Every scientist who has ever studied the issue, witht the exception of very few, are convinced that it is happenind and that it is atleast in part a consequence of human activity. Usually skeptics are railing aganst the global warming naysayers camp, not the people who say global warming is happening.
    • Unsu...
       
      Brentt, I believe most of the controversy is not in whether the earth is warming (it is) but why it is warming.

      We are nearing the peak of our global temperature cycle, which makes it hard to determine whether the warming is simply due to that or more complex variables like greenhouse gases etc. One of the problems with this is that as the earth warms, huge amounts of greenhouse gases are released from the earth itself (lotsa methane, CO, and CO2 in the soil) which may cause the earth to warm further, releasing more gases, on and on. The major question is: Did we cause it, or is it naturally occurring? It's a chicken-and-the-egg question, one which may not be answered.

      It's 7 am however, I've been up since 5, and I'm too lazy to find sources... Sorry if I got any of this wrong, my brain isn't anywhere near functional yet. :-P
      • Its preposterous to maintain that human beings do not effect climate and geography, diversity, etc. Its not an accident that many animals have gone extinct in the past few centuries, that the Earth's forests are being cut down and that the supplies of edible fish in the sea are "drying up". Its also pretty clear that the hole in the ozone around the South Pole was the result of too much freon and the resulting O3 in the atmosphere.

        For some reason though, some people continue to believe that pumping millions of tons in CO2 into the atmosphere every year is having no effect on our climate...
      • That's why I said, "and most believe that it is atleast in part cause by humans". your right, the controversy isn't if it's happening, it's if it's caused by human activity. And most scientists believe it is, not because most scientists are liberals bent on doing anything possible to harm the economy, but because that is what most of the evidence points to. For example, one study showed that in the Southwest US, average temperature cycles happen in 7 day period. There is only one process that happens in 7 days period, i.e. the 7 day workweek. Of course there is lots more evidence than this I'm sure. Fact is if you talk to the experts, climatologists, they will tell you that the evidence is overwhelming that it the warming is atleast in part, a significant part, cause by humans.

        Now there is a more pertinent, and less agreed upon controversey by scientists who do agree that global warming has a human element (of course whether global warming is happening because of humans isn't "agreed upon" by politicians mostly, not scientist, but most of the people who don't agree aren't scientists, they are dogmatic and ultra-conservative anti-environmentalists, using the weak support of a fringe group of scientists ) about what is the best way to adress the problem, and how vigorously we should attack global warming. The concern is that the more vigourously we attack globabl warming the more the economy will respond negatively. The cost-benefit analysis isn't clear. That should be the controversy right now until the fringe group comes up with some strong counter-evidence to answer the strong evidence that global warming is caused by humans, something they've failed to produce, and have therfore resorted to hyberbole.
  • Reading the news won't help you evaluate claims. The best way to evaluate the claims is to read the data yourself, but that's not always feasible. I try to read sources that are only one or two steps removed from the data - like Scientific American or Steve Milloy's junk science columns. You have to read A LOT of those articles to get a sense of how a given author writes and what his biases are - Milloy, for instance, is a master of leaving things out. That doesn't make him a bad source, it just means you have to read carefully. It also helps to understand who the members of a given group are. The Environmental Working Group, for instance, issues lots of news briefs but doesn't employ a single scientist. Not a one. Read their stuff with several grains of salt. Eventually you gain experience and you start to learn when a given report is problematic. It helps to learn a little bit about logic and logical flaws first. Carl Sagan's baloney detection kit is a good start www.carlsagan.com/revamp/ca...loney.html

    Regards,
    Lizz
  • Honor dies where interest lies, they say. If you're being told something by someone who has a strong interest in the outcome, say a government that is strongly beholden to the oil and energy industries, then you can bet their viewpoint will be skewed toward a position that denies the environmental costs of their policies. If your told something by people who would prefer to leave a decent planet to their children, you can bet their viewpoint will be skewed toward a position that denies the economic and social costs of abandoning our energy infrastructure.

    There are real issues on both sides, but most people are so biased one way or the other that it seems that most of what we hear are half arguments and propaganda, alas.

    I don't claim to understand the intricacies of either position, but I definitely don't trust our current government to do anything but lie when it comes to the environment or energy policy. That's the legacy they've earned, in my opinion -- they are heartless, money-grubbing liars. Thus, I don't trust the government's position that global warming isn't a real problem. They're just trying not to let the economy crash any further during their time in office. They could care less about what happens after that, I think.
  • Hello, everyone. I just joined tribe to talk about this specific issue, but hopefully I'll end up discussing more here. Seems like an intelligent place.

    I too feel like Aziyade with regard to environmentalism / global warming. Up until about a year ago I just sort of accepted that global warming was human-caused because...well, I consider myself a conscious person who cares about the world and how we affect it. But now I'm not so sure, mainly because I've seen enough arguments by now that it is happening, but that it actually isn't related to CO2. Problem is, I don't know who to believe. When I try to talk to people about the skeptical arguments, they dismiss it as probably being written by someone with stock in an oil company, or an uber-conservative or something along those lines, but that can't be all there is to it. One thing I have learned is that the issue is highly politicized, which it shouldn't be. What I mean to say is...it seems like if you're a more "liberal" person (I do tend to lean more to the left than the right) you have to think we're causing it because it fits with a certain "caring about the earth" viewpoint. And if you're a more right-leaning person, you're supposed to dismiss the idea that we're causing it because humans are good and capitalism is good and environmentalists have an "agenda".

    Well, I don't care about anyone's agenda. To answer part Aziyade's question, I DO think that there has to be a truth out there. Either we are contributing wholly, partially or not at all to this phenomenon.

    I for one am tired of shaping my views based solely on my political outlook and what side I'm "supposed" to take. I've tried looking for a good book or something on this, but it seems like people are either way too vested in proving that we are COMPLETELY causing this, or they go too far the other way and seem way too vested in trying to prove that we're not causing anything and we should shut up about it. Granted, both of these are POSSIBLE, but it's hard to sort it all out.

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