woo or solid prediction?
for newcomers to the idea, the concept is that technology is progressing at an exponential rate. eventually on an exponential curve the line goes vertical, or asymptotic. in the context of technological change that would mean that what had taken fifty years to change, then ten years to change, then five years to change, then a year to change, could change in hours, or even less. and it's in some ways difficult to see why it wouldn't get even shorter, particularly in the context of a robust artificial intelligence technology.
the point being that when the line goes asymptotic what will happen is totally unpredictable, and even "unknowable" in a sense, which is why vernor vinge coined the word "singularity" for it.
it's an interesting mixture of apparently solid reasoning and "end of the world" narratives of transcendence that are so common.
here's the wiki on it with more info.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tech...ingularity
what do you guys think?
for newcomers to the idea, the concept is that technology is progressing at an exponential rate. eventually on an exponential curve the line goes vertical, or asymptotic. in the context of technological change that would mean that what had taken fifty years to change, then ten years to change, then five years to change, then a year to change, could change in hours, or even less. and it's in some ways difficult to see why it wouldn't get even shorter, particularly in the context of a robust artificial intelligence technology.
the point being that when the line goes asymptotic what will happen is totally unpredictable, and even "unknowable" in a sense, which is why vernor vinge coined the word "singularity" for it.
it's an interesting mixture of apparently solid reasoning and "end of the world" narratives of transcendence that are so common.
here's the wiki on it with more info.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tech...ingularity
what do you guys think?
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SF Bay Area
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Re: the singularity
Mon, May 12, 2008 - 9:57 PM -
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Re: the singularity
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 6:23 AMIt's fun, and I enjoyed Waking Life as an art film, but to say something rather obvious:
I'm extremely skeptical of this "singularity". Too facile a gathering up of many threads into a tidy package. Pegs my grandiosity meter into the red.
Something I find more interesting as a discussion of where we're going/where we've been is addressed in these links from MetaFilter:
hanson.gmu.edu/greatfilter.html
www.technologyreview.com/Infot...page1/ -
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Re: the singularity
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 11:02 AMyes, that's possible. it's also possible that intelligent life is just extremely extremely rare.
i don't know, i'm skeptical of it as well, and the two ideas are not incompatible, it may be that vastly increased technological change will destroy us, as more and more powerful weapons come into the hands of smaller and smaller groups of people, and eventually individuals.
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